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Alex kids: miracle Woods: Crewe (a) factfile
Various
8 March 2010
Know your enemy
Town's record against...
Their facts and figures
Our facts and figures
Refwatch
Mascotwatch
Wanna bet?
Travel guide
In a nutshell
This isn't how Crewe fans saw their season turning out. Sticking with Gudjon Thordarson last summer, the club expected that some stability would reap an instant return to the third division. But it only took two months before the Icelander was dismissed, a combination of results, performances, and method. As the Alex are a club steeped in Dariobility,so they turned to their director of football, once more.
Not that their season has picked up too much, but at least the threat of relegation isn't lurking over their shoulder. They can sneak a win or a defeat as a team, and as likely to have a stormer or a shocker as individuals. Look no further than Clayton Donaldson for this – a player who can bewitch and dazzle, but also capable of missing the easiest of chances.
On t'internet
It is a tragedy unprecedented in the history of human civilisation that the football club that gave rise to possibly the greatest
named print fanzine of all time seems to have no independent fan site on the worldwide web. Somebody even bought a domain and then decided to sell it instead of building a site there! Never mind – if you have an attention span on a par with Simon Ford's, there's always an official CAFC Twitter
feed. Oh God. Just go to the pub instead, for fuck's sake.
Overall record: P56 W22 D15 L19 F74 A70
At Blundell Park: P29 W14 D6 L9 F48 A33
At their place: P27 W8 D9 L10 F26 A37
Full details in the results database
Previous encounter: 15 August 2009
On matters concerning Grimsby Town Football Club, one should always begin by assuming the worst. This means we ought never again to be optimistic about a new season before a ball is kicked. If our first league game of the current campaign was one we should have won, the
2-1 defeat at Cheltenham, then no such ambiguity surrounded our second a week later, when Crewe barely had to break sweat in a 4-0 walkover.
The game was effectively over after two easy first-half goals from Town tormentor of yore Mr Calvin Zola, but a Billy Jones penalty and a Byron Moore tap-in at opposite ends of the second period gave the scoreline a more realistic feel, and it wasn't all down to a shocking debut in goal by Tommy Forecast. Mike Newell was moved to describe his team's performance as "possibly as bad as I've ever witnessed in my managerial career", and even as we walked away mumbling hopefully that it was probably some sort of one-off, the old uneasiness was never far away.
Tony Butcher's match report
Last five meetings, home and away
L Grimsby 0-4 Crewe (fourth division, 15/08/2009)
L Grimsby 0-3 Crewe (League Cup, 22/08/2006)
L Crewe 2-0 Grimsby (second division, 19/01/2002)
W Grimsby 1-0 Crewe (second division, 11/08/2001)
L Grimsby 1-3 Crewe (second division, 13/01/2001)
Last five meetings at their place
L Crewe 2-0 Grimsby (second division, 19/01/2002)
L Crewe 2-0 Grimsby (second division, 29/08/2000)
D Crewe 1-1 Grimsby (second division, 27/08/1999)
d Crewe 0-0 Grimsby (second division, 16/03/1999)
W Crewe 1-2 Grimsby (third division, 08/09/1990)
How you doin'?
15th in the fourth division: P34 W12 D7 L15 F52 A54 (GD-2) 43pts
In league with...
14th Accrington 46pts
15th Crewe 43pts
16th Bradford 43pts
Recent form
8 points from 18
L Rochdale 2-0 Crewe (fourth division, 06/02/2010)
W Burton 1-2 Crewe (fourth division, 12/02/2010)
W Crewe 3-2 Northampton (fourth division, 20/02/2010)
L Crewe 0-1 Chesterfield (fourth division, 24/02/2010)
D Lincoln 1-1 Crewe (fourth division, 27/02/2010)
D Crewe 2-2 Barnet (fourth division, 06/03/2010)
Goalscoring superstar heroes
Calvin Zola (16 goals, 13 in the league)
Clayton Donaldson (8 goals, all in the league)
Dirty, dirty boys
Shaun Miller (5 yellows; 5 points)
Patrick Ada (2 yellows, 1 red; 4 points)
Stat!
8: the number of times Crewe have lost at home
How we doin'?
23rd in the fourth division: P34 W4 D15 L15 F27 A48 (GD-21) 27pts
The season starts in March
In league with...
22nd Cheltenham 31pts
23rd Grimsby 27pts
24th Darlington 15pts
Recent form
7 points from 18
d Bradford 0-0 Grimsby (fourth division, 13/02/2010)
D Notts County 1-1 Grimsby (fourth division, 17/02/2010)
D Grimsby 2-2 Lincoln (fourth division, 20/02/2010)
D Grimsby 1-1 Macclesfield (fourth division, 22/02/2010)
L Dagenham 2-0 Grimsby (fourth division, 27/02/2010)
W Grimsby 3-0 Shrewsbury (fourth division, 06/03/2010)
Goalscoring superstar heroes
Peter Sweeney (6 goals, 4 in the league)
Five players (2 goals)
Dirty, dirty boys
Peter Sweeney (9 yellows; 9 points)
Adam Proudlock (4 yellows, 1 red; 6 points)
Paul Linwood (5 yellows; 5 points)
The man in the middle for the Crewe match will be our old friend Mr Colin Webster of Tyne & Wear. Colin has been around forever, really – absolutely forever. He's been around so long he even featured in the very first Cod Almighty refwatch back in the 'glory' days of 2003. This is at least his tenth season as a referee in the Football League. Last season he handed out 92 yellow and five red cards in 42 games – that's just over two yellows per game and a red every eight games or so. He's on the lenient side of average for this division.
As you've probably guessed, we've had the pleasure of Mr Webster's company on a number of occasions. Last season he made two visits to Blundell Park, firstly for Newell's first game in charge at home when Town threw away a 1-0 lead in the last minute against Wycombe. Our man on the spot, Tony Butcher, felt that he was "largely unobtrusive" and gave him a generous 7.231. Later on in that same season for the 5-1 drubbing of Lincoln, he wasn't so generous, describing Mr Webster as "distinctly-mintly level par for this pitch and putt league" and claiming that "we won despite him". The season before sees a similar tale of two games: for the unusual 4-0 away win at Morecambe Tony felt there wasn't "much to complain about", however earlier that season he felt Mr Webster "destroyed a bad game" and was "shockingly weak" for the home defeat to Accrington. There is a pattern here it would seem – if you're playing a physical team you're buggered, and if you're playing a footballing team he's fine... and Crewe are?
Colin Webster has been the top scorer for the last three seasons in the National Referees 5-a-side League, scoring over 50 goals each season.
In summary, then: it's fine
Gresty The Lion. Better than Shrewsbury's Lennie the Lion, for sure. We have no qualms. Mighty will probably be stuck at home supping on some ales for this fixture anyway. The lazy fat fuck.
The odds
Town 7/2 (Skybet)
draw 5/2 (various)
Crewe 10/11 (Betfred)
The ratings
Crewe 735
Town 414
Three goals scored, none conceded and a boost of just under 50 points to Town's rating – what a strange weekend indeed. Crewe, on the other hand dropped a few points, both league and rating, with a draw at home to Barnet. The big question though is how this affects each team's chances of winning this particular fixture.
Crewe are odds-on at all the bookies and some firms have gone as low as 8/11 about a home win. That seems a little odd to me. OK, their home record is better than the Mariners' away record but it's not staggering. Do Crewe really have a better than 50% chance of winning against a resurgent Town side? Not really. Our model would want us to have 2/1 on them winning, a price that is never going to be available really.
The extra rating points the Mariners picked up at the weekend have boosted their winning chances a couple of percent to the point where anything in the 5/2 to 11/4 region would offer a touch of value. Skybet will let you have 7/2 and there seems to be plenty of 10/3 about with other firms if Skybet trim their price. These are both prices worth taking, obviously the higher the better though.
What about the draw? Actually as Crewe's odds are so much skinnier than one would expect for a match between these teams there is value to be had on the draw also. Anything much over 2/1 (and you won't find a draw priced lower than that) is worth having so with plenty of 5/2 about we should seriously consider a cover bet. However, I have a slightly better idea this week.
I was going to suggest we back the away win with a cover bet on the draw. That way if Town win then we land our main bet and lose a smaller stake on the draw, and if they draw we come out even. This is basically equivalent to backing Grimsby Town on the 'draw no bet' market. You'll have to trust me on this one (or work it out for yourself) but with Paddy Power going 11/5 about the away side on their 'draw no bet' market we'd be better off taking that than going for the away win with cover on the draw. So that's what we'll do, let's back Town on the 'draw no bet' market. An away win nets us a winner at 11/5 and a draw means our stakes are returned.
Our record this season
Number of bets placed: 34
Number of bets spot on: 12
Precision factor: 35%
Their gaff: Internet Football Ground Guide
Get there by car: Google Map directions
Gaining entrance: x
Nearest train station: Crewe, two minutes walk
Weather in the area: Met Office
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